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Stock Market Consolidation Stock Market ConsolidationBy Published November 1999[http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/] [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/globalvillageinvestmentclubwelcome/] The National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD) has a vision.They see two North American Markets by 2010. They see the New York StockExchange (NYSE) as the "traditional" Market. The NASD expects to owneverything else. They'll be the Market of Cyberspace. Since they operateNasdaq, the second largest market in the States, their vision isn't wishfulthinking.The NASD has acquired the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and thePhiladelphia Stock Exchange. They are trying to acquire the remainingregional American Stock Exchanges. They intend to include the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE) in their vision.The NASD will sell the Over-the-Counter Bulletin Board (OTCBB) inthe next five years. The reason is the NASD's reputation is at risk fromunethical OTCBB trading. And the OTCBB, like the Western Canadian StockExchanges, will face growing competition from Cyberspace.The NYSE wants to expand. They are considering taking the NYSEpublic to raise money to compete with the NASD in Cyberspace. I suspectthey will be competitive bidders for the remaining American regional StockExchanges and the TSE. The NYSE sales pitch will stress status.I doubt the merger of the Vancouver, Alberta and Winnipeg StockExchanges will work. Along with the Canadian Dealers Network in Ontario,Canada's risk capital markets will be history within the next twenty years.Also, I suspect that the Montreal Stock Exchange will disappear by 2020.The reasons for failure involve the credibility of these markets combinedwith increased competition from Cyberspace.The Frankfurt (German) Stock Exchange (GSE) has a NASD vision forEurope. It sees the International (London) Stock Exchange (ISE) as thetraditional market in the 21st Century. The Germans intend to consolidateeverything else. The German Stock Exchange's problem is overcoming national sensibilities in Europe.The end game for the NASD and GSE would be the merger of theirnetworks around 2015. They would leave the NYSE and ISE as backwater"traditional markets." It will take at least an additional ten years forthe NASD and GSE to merge. If it happens, it will occur after 2020.Recent history suggests that the Asian markets will move toconsolidate. The Europeans created
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their Union. The North Americansfollowed with NAFTA. The Asians were forced to create ASEAN. The American and European integration will force Asian Stock Markets to consolidate.The wild card in the 21st Century Cartel plan is theNet. Several years ago, Wit Capital failed to create an online Stock Marketin the United States. However, the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC) is being forced to allow Net Stock Exchanges. At present, there aretwo LEGAL Net Stock Exchanges. One serves small capital investors. Theother serves "after-hours" institutional traders.In the beginning, the SEC used "Cease & Desist" orders to closedown Net Stock Exchanges. Today, there are at least twenty American NetStock Exchanges trading without the blessing of the SEC. The AmericanProhibition Era exemplifies the SEC's problem. They can't stop unlicensedNet Stock Exchanges, so they'll move to regulate them.The SEC is in a quandary about regulating the Internet. The rest ofthe World is unlikely to try. Like online gambling, local Net StockExchanges create jobs in places that never heard of Wall Street.As the established stock markets consolidate, the Net will see aproliferation of Net Stock Exchange. The hundreds of these Stock Exchangeswill fragment the risk capital market. The limiting factor isn't the SEC.It's time to allow a computer-literate generation to have the disposablecapital necessary to feed the dreams of the next generation of speculators.It will happen by 2010.As the established Stock Markets consolidate and the risk capitalmarkets fragment on the Net, nobody is looking for the Bear. We are in themidst of the greatest Bull Market in History. It's time to go public. It'stime to build your company. It's time to sell your company at MarketCapitalization. Then, it will be time to adopt a capital protection mode. The reason is the Bear is coming. It will probably arrive between2010-2015. When it arrives, it will herald the worst Depression since thebeginning of the Technological Revolution. The NASD & Germans will survey their empire as the Bear steps upon them.To contact the author: Visit the Beowulf Investments website: [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/] Or, visit the Global Village Investment Club Website:[http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/globalvillageinvestmentclubwelcome/].
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